CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
----------------
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Jun 08 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels due to numerous M-class flare
activity. Region 3697 (S17W65, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the
largest event of the period in the form of a long-duration M9.7/1f flare
at 08/0149 UTC. Associated with this event was filament ejecta to the
north and west, a 894 km/s Type II sweep, a Type IV sweep and a 460 sfu
Tenflare...
...An asymmetric-halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0148
UTC. A majority of the initial shock was viewed in the western quadrant
and was related to the M9.7 flare mentioned above. Subsequent analysis
and model output suggests an Earth impact midday on 10 June.

Solar Wind

.Forecast...
Enhanced conditions are expected on 08-09 Jun due to the continued
transient influence and the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS on
08-10 Jun. By midday or so on 10 Jun, CME effects from the 08 Jun CME
are likely to impact conditions on Earth.

Geospace

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels are expected on 08 Jun with continued
transient influence and arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to
unsettled levels are likely on 09 Jun with continued weak CH HSS
influence. Active to major storm (G2/Moderate) levels are expected on 10
Jun due to CME effects from the 08 June M9.7 event.

----------------
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Jun 08 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 08-Jun 10 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 08-Jun 10 2024

             Jun 08       Jun 09       Jun 10
00-03UT       4.33         3.00         1.67     
03-06UT       3.33         3.33         1.33     
06-09UT       3.00         2.33         2.33     
09-12UT       2.67         2.00         3.33     
12-15UT       3.67         2.33         4.67 (G1)
15-18UT       2.67         2.00         6.00 (G2)
18-21UT       2.67         2.00         6.00 (G2)
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         5.00 (G1)

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on
Jun 10 due to CME effects.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy